The former head of the Israeli intelligence service "Nativ" Jakob Kedmi in the beginning of Maidan, in a calm and witty manner, predicted what it would come to. And his guess was correct. What are his predictions now?
"If the plans of Moscow and Damascus are successfully implemented, it would increase Russia's prestige in Europe and in the world", — believes Kedmi. "And then any move of Russia to support Donbass would be more efficient and would be interpreted in a different way. After solving the Syrian problem, the problem of Donbass and the regime of Poroshenko would remain. Both Russia and Europe are hoping that this problem could be solved without military actions. How true it could be will depend on the internal situation in Ukraine".
Kedmi says that the weakness of Poroshenko’s regime is obvious. In Ukraine, as in Syria, there are similar armed gangs that try to destabilize the situation. Kedmi has outlines two scenarios of the Ukrainian crisis.
"Slow decay of the regime in Ukraine and the continuation of economic catastrophe would lead to internal changes and the change of power in the right direction, that is, the recognition of the two Donbass republics," — says the analyst. "The critical point will be the elections enshrined in the Minsk Agreement. Then the whole Europe would have to recognize Lugansk and Donetsk as legitimate political entities. This recognition would be followed by the destabilization of the Ukrainian regime, otherwise — the failure of Minsk".
"And the failure of Minsk seriously raises the possibility of military action", - says Kedmi.
"Considering a strong position of Russia in Syria, if there is progress there, it will reduce the desire of those who are behind the regime of Poroshenko to confront Russia’s support of Novorossia in Ukraine. This would definitely cool down their zeal. One way or another, but it is not in favor of Poroshenko and Maidan authorities. One wishes there would be no human toll".
"The situation might not be changing as fast as the residents of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkiv and Odessa would like, but it is going in the right direction", - says Kedmi.
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